During the past calendar year, the headlines orbiting the Big 12 have had more to do with coaching changes and conference realignment than the product on the field, but that’s not a proper reflection of the quality of football. Though the conference lacked a first-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft, 25 players were selected, and several fit the changing player archetypes in today’s spread-out game.
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The 2023 draft will likely feature a similar number of draftable prospects from the Big 12, and there are a few players with top-50 potential or better. Continuing the late spring and early summer trend of way-too-early projections, here are 10 draft-eligible players in the Big 12 whom I’m keeping my eyes on every weekend this season.
Texas: Bijan Robinson, RB
Robinson leading this crop of players is a given. He’s the most electrifying athlete in college football. Texas’ issues generating explosive offense (and preventing it on defense) were clear every week last season, but Robinson’s best runs made it feel as though he could carry the program to respectability on his own. He finished eighth in the FBS in rushing yards per game (112.7).
Robinson boasts a complete toolkit in the backfield: the patience to allow blocks to develop, the explosiveness to press the hole, the shiftiness to elude tacklers in the box and the long speed to stretch good runs into touchdowns or long gains. Texas uses every run scheme known to man — from inside zone to iso to pin-and-pull — and Robinson understands how to change his pace based on the play call. As a receiver, he can create extra yardage on checkdowns or be a real piece of the quarterback’s progression on option routes, wheels or split out as a slot in an empty set.
Texas has worked overtime to revamp its offense and add talent wherever it can, but the central force won’t be changing in 2022 — everything begins and ends with Robinson.
Power Five leaders in missed tackles forced per rush attempt last season
⚡️ Bijan Robinson: 0.41
⚡️ Dameon Pierce: 0.39
⚡️ Zonovan Knight: 0.35 pic.twitter.com/OjyGH6kaFi
— PFF College (@PFF_College) May 14, 2022
Baylor: Connor Galvin, OT
Galvin is no stranger to high praise from this publication, receiving first team All-American honors from The Athletic after a strong performance in 2021. He is an enormous tackle at 6-foot-7 and 310 pounds, and he’s able to activate his quick-twitch muscles as a downhill blocker in Baylor’s outside zone scheme.
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The Big 12’s reigning offensive lineman of the year has the agility to get even — and sometimes, in front of — interior defensive linemen from his tackle position and drive them upfield, creating massive cutback lanes for his running backs. As a pass protector, though, he has a habit of turning and chasing speed rushers, which opens him up to counter moves and bullrushes. I’d like to see him refine his footwork and hip mobility and show he’s equipped to deal with elite edge defenders in the NFL.
Baylor used its physicality on offense to run over its conference opponents on the way to a Big 12 title in 2021. With several offensive linemen returning, expect more of the same. Galvin can stamp his resume as a top-three tackle in the next draft.
West Virginia: Dante Stills, DT
As NFL defenses embrace personnel and scheme changes, versatility up the spine of a defense is a growing priority. Defensive tackles, linebackers and safeties have to take on more responsibility and create disruption even when offenses are trying to eliminate their influence on a given play. Stills has the positional versatility and individual talent to be a productive player in today’s NFL.
The 6-4, 285-pound prospect finished 2021 with 15 tackles for loss and seven sacks — impressive numbers for any defensive tackle and especially one in a two-high defensive scheme that asks interior defenders to eat up gaps. Stills has a strong get-off and plays with good balance and active feet, even when he’s striking blockers. His arm-over move is effective as a pass rusher, and West Virginia has found production from Stills in every alignment. Sack totals usually decide who wins conference awards on the defensive line, but don’t be surprised if Stills is 2022’s best defensive lineman in the Big 12, with or without the hardware.
TCU: Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, CB
At my age, it’s a given that my idols in football will have sons, nephews and younger cousins come into their own as players and add to their family legacies. As a native San Diegan, seeing an undersized Tomlinson producing like one of the nation’s best for TCU gives me a particular kind of whiplash. Hodges-Tomlinson, at all of 5 feet 9, is a two-time all-conference performer, and he received All-American honors in 2020, playing with a chip on his shoulder that I imagine to be hereditary.
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Hodges-Tomlinson, nephew of La’Dainian Tomlinson, broke up 22 passes in the past two seasons, and his aggression at the catch point is evident on tape. Even if the ball is outside of his own catch radius, Hodges-Tomlinson has the leaping ability to bother the receiver without risking pass interference or illegal contact penalties. His ball production flies in the face of his arm length, so I’ll be closely watching how he performs against the best receivers in the Big 12 again. If Tomlinson stacks up three seasons of production at this level, NFL teams will covet him in the slot.
Baylor: Siaki Ika, DT
In this era of college football, we have an interesting metric by which to gauge a coach’s influence: the transfer portal. Ika, a 350-pound nose tackle, began his career as a part of LSU’s defensive line rotation, playing in 13 of 15 games. After Dave Aranda’s exit for Baylor, Ika tried to stick it out in Baton Rouge but eventually made his way back to Aranda’s multiple 3-4 scheme. The decision proved prescient, as Ika won Defensive Newcomer of the Year in the Big 12 and made the all-conference team.
Ika had 11 combined tackles for loss and sacks in 2021, and he impacted plenty of snaps without logging any stats. His get-off and motor is impressive for his size, and he has enough agility to stay on the field when Aranda and defensive coordinator Ron Roberts want to toggle between odd and even fronts. However, Ika’s stature raises questions about how long he can sustain his baseline of play throughout a game.
Iowa State: Will McDonald IV, Edge
One of two AP All-Americans on this list, McDonald might be the most productive defensive player in the conference over the span of his career. In the past two seasons McDonald has racked up 27.5 tackles for loss, 22 sacks and 10 quarterback hits. His 11.5 sacks in 2021 broke his own school record set in 2020.
McDonald’s effort and tenacity as a rusher are his greatest attributes, particularly in a defense famous for dropping eight into coverage. He executes well on stunts and slants, warping the pocket and closing windows in the run game, and he has some ability to turn the corner and bend on the edge.
McDonald’s productivity in this defense is a credit to his ability, but it comes with some necessary context. A good deal of McDonald’s pass rushing productivity comes as clean-up pressures or coverage sacks. His TFLs often come by coming across the face of a tackle into an open gap, and he’s typically aligned as a “heavy” five technique or 4i, putting him almost head up with the tackle. The NFL doesn’t often use sub-250 pound players this way. McDonald’s traits show some promise as a 4-3 pass rushing end in the NFL, so I’ll be locked into watching him in every obvious passing situation.
Felix Anudike-Uzomah (Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)Kansas State: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge
As this list suggests, the Big 12 has quietly elevated its defensive play and talent after the literal spread of the Air Raid offense a decade ago. By embracing space and speed, the defensive coordinators in the conference can accommodate edge rushers like Anudike-Uzomah, who put up 14.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks in 2021 and shared the Big 12’s defensive lineman of the year title with McDonald.
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Anundike-Uzomah is an explosive player on the edge with a high football IQ. I would like to see him add more rush moves to his repertoire, but his best trait is understanding where the bottom of the quarterback’s pocket will be and stressing tackles by beating them to the landmark. He uses his hands and physicality well against the run and can control the edge when he’s at the point of attack.
Anudike-Uzomah needs to be more consistent in his week-to-week performance, and refining his skill set will go a long way toward that. Fourteen of his combined 25.5 tackles for loss and sacks occurred in Kansas State’s games against TCU and Southern Illinois, and he’ll need to replicate that kind of dominance against the Big 12’s best teams this season.
Iowa State: Trevor Downing, IOL
Making the move from guard to center in 2022, Downing is looking to add versatility that will surely help his draft stock next offseason. He shouldn’t have much trouble with his new duties, given he’s been a dependable starter every year he’s been on Iowa State’s active roster. Downing isn’t a road grader in Iowa State’s zone running scheme, but he has the size and strength to move defensive tackles at the point of attack. In pass protection at guard, he passes off stunts and twists well, understands when and how to help the center and can hold his own in one-on-one scenarios.
Where Downing can stand to improve — and what might have inspired the position change — is his quickness and mental acuity when climbing to the second level as a run blocker. That’s not to say he doesn’t understand how to get to linebackers, but Downing’s angles are poor at times, allowing defenders to flow to the ball unimpeded. At the center position, that responsibility will be alleviated, and he can focus more on winning at the first level.
TCU: Quentin Johnston, WR
One of the nation’s top 15 wide receivers in his recruiting class, Johnston came into his own last season, averaging 19 yards per reception on his way to a first-team all-conference selection. Given he’s 6-4, Johnston is a difficult receiver to guard in general, but his ability to make catches seemingly outside of his radius adds value that new head coach Sonny Dykes is probably excited to maximize. Johnston isn’t a burner, and he can improve on changing his pace within the route and coming out of his breaks to extend separation, but he’s a slippery receiver to tackle once the ball is in his hands. Former offensive coordinator Doug Meacham loved to use him on screens and hitch routes to give him space to create offense.
With all the soft zone coverage Big 12 offenses see, it’s not likely that we’ll get many reps of Johnston trying to work himself open against press coverage, something I’m always looking to evaluate when determining a prospect’s ceiling at the position. If Johnston can break out after a solid 2021 campaign and flashes big-play potential against the likes of Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas, he could be one of the sleeper receivers in this upcoming draft class.
Kansas State: Chris “Deuce” Vaughn, RB
If I were ranking these players solely on accolades and production, Vaughn might have topped this list after receiving first team AP All-American honors in 2021 and landing on the watch list for every award there is to win at running back in 2022. He was the engine powering Chris Klieman’s offense and the Kansas State program last season, averaging six yards per carry and punching it into the end zone 18 times on the ground.
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Vaughn is a tough runner, bursting through holes in zone and gap schemes at full speed on every carry. Power in his legs helps him tear through arm tackles and bad technique from defenders. And in the open field, Vaughn has enough wiggle to make players miss and enough speed to create explosive offense out of the backfield. His 2020 season was a bit more prolific than 2021 as a receiver, but he’s already amassed 900 yards and 74 receptions in just 23 career games. His toughness and playmaking ability make him a problem against every team he plays, no matter the caliber of opponent.
Ultimately, concerns with Vaughn will come down to his stature. Listed at 5-6 and 176 pounds by Kansas State, there’s not much precedent for a player of that size panning out in the NFL at one of the sport’s most physically demanding positions. Vaughn is likely to light up the box score every week, once again, in 2022, but meaningful conversations about his draftability won’t begin until we get official measurements and athletic scores.
In the meantime, take my advice and enjoy the show while we have it.
(Top photo of Will McDonald IV: Brandon Wade / AP)
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